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The US dollar is heading toward its best two-week performance in the past six months, and despite EUR/USD attempts to find a bottom, the pair's medium-term outlook remains bearish. The Fed's hawkish shift, the strength of the US economy, the return of the artificial intelligence boom theme to equity markets, and continued global tensions continue to support the greenback.
The resilience of economies to the oil crisis in the Middle East is no longer surprising. Strong European and US business activity data provided evidence of this. At the same time, Treasury yields are rising faster than those of their counterparts. This suggests that both the economy is growing faster and the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Fed is higher.
Bond Yield Dynamics
If global debt market yields previously rose in tandem with oil prices, the pullback and stabilization of Brent crude amid the intention of the US and Iran to return to diplomacy have not halted the rally in Treasury yields. Those who believe that the reason lies in the strength of the US economy and the Fed's hawkish shift expect the dollar to strengthen further. Those who believe that the real problem lies in Washington's fiscal difficulties advise starting to sell the greenback.
Rising reversal risks across various time horizons support the continuation of the USD Index rally. This suggests that investors are paying more for protection against a strengthening US dollar than for hedging against a collapse in its value.
Dynamics of US Dollar Reversal Risks
The euro is finding it difficult to resist. On the one hand, the eurozone economy is performing encouragingly, allowing the ECB to tighten monetary policy. On the other hand, the risks of the French government being forced to resign due to budget problems, as well as the risk of an energy crisis returning to Europe amid Donald Trump's ban on US diesel fuel exports, remain in place.
What comes next? The economic calendar for the week ending October 2 is packed with important events. Given the markets' strong reaction to business activity data, it is possible to speak of a renewed interest in macroeconomic statistics. US employment and European inflation reports are attracting particular attention.
The Fed has a dual mandate, so a deterioration in the US labor market could hinder its efforts to continue the monetary tightening cycle. This would weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if the unemployment situation remains stable, the USD Index could continue its rally. Europe is playing a supporting role. Formally, an acceleration in consumer prices is a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of higher ECB rates. In reality, the euro may be bought on the rumors and then sold on the facts.
Technically, the EUR/USD daily chart shows a battle for resistance at 1.14. If the level remains in the hands of the bulls, there will be grounds for short-term long positions. Conversely, if the level returns to the bears, this would be a reason to trade a rebound from resistance and sell the euro.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
