¡La leyenda en el equipo de InstaSpot!
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The 1.1416 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1416 led to the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying the euro, but the pair never managed to make a significant upward move.
The eurozone's September composite PMI rose unexpectedly sharply, reaching 53.1 points from 52.0 in August and hitting a three-and-a-half-year high. The manufacturing sector stood out in particular, against the backdrop of a solid recovery in Germany. However, despite the impressive figures, the euro failed to receive the necessary support and continued to weaken against the dollar. I believe the reason is that the market's attention is currently almost entirely focused on growing expectations of another Fed rate hike, and against this backdrop, even a three-year high in eurozone business activity is taking a back seat.
The key event in the second half of the day will be the preliminary September US PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the composite PMI. US business activity is currently in good shape, and I expect strong figures to provide the dollar with additional momentum, especially in light of the series of hawkish statements from Fed officials that has accumulated over the past few days. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr's speech will also add weight to the picture. His position traditionally tends toward a more hawkish policy stance, so his comments may appeal particularly to traders betting on further dollar strength.
For the euro, such a scenario is particularly unfavorable following this morning's surprise. If the evening US data and Barr's speech confirm the central bank's determination, I believe EUR/USD risks continuing to decline despite the objectively positive fundamental background in the eurozone, which is clearly losing out to the US outlook this week.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1424 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1453. At 1.1453, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any rise in the euro today can only be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1406 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1424 and 1.1453 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1406 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1378, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1424 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1406 and 1.1378 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of economic news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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