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Three Fed officials spoke on the same day with comments that individually sounded measured but together paint a clear picture: the Fed does not view last year's interest rate increase as the final step, and inflationary pressure appears more persistent than it did a month ago.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned in Baltimore on Tuesday that inflationary shocks may take time to fade and that there is a risk today's elevated inflation could feed future inflation. Supply shocks, he said, have stopped being one-off and temporary, leaving lasting price pressure across the economy. "These may pass in time, but I do expect it will take time," Barkin said, adding that last week's rate hike will help slow inflation even as he stopped short of explicitly calling for more tightening. Responding to questions, he noted that some pressure from high energy prices and tariffs will unwind on its own, but appropriately restrictive policy will also play a role — and how painful the path back to target will be for demand remains to be seen in practice.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins was more explicit, endorsing last week's rate hike as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target. On Tuesday, she said a tighter policy rate will help ensure a durable return of inflation to target, especially given that it has remained too high for five and a half years. Collins also said she is among the committee members penciling in a second hike this year and expects rates to be unchanged in 2027. The plainly hawkish tone from officials like Collins reduces the basis for the market to price in a pause in the cycle at upcoming meetings.
The third speech, by New York Fed President John Williams, was formally about technical aspects of the money market, but it complements the same picture of gradual — rather than abrupt — tightening of conditions. Williams said the industry's shift toward centralized clearing for US Treasuries and repo collateral is running ahead of schedule. Market infrastructure is expanding, and activity is moving from non-cleared venues faster than expected. He also confirmed the Fed's approach of maintaining a "sufficient" level of bank reserves has helped keep market rates within the target range and promised the Fed will adjust reserve supply if demand changes due to regulation or market structure.
All three speeches came just days after the Fed's unanimous decision to raise the policy rate for the first time in more than three years to a 3.75–4.00% range, and the updated median projection signaled one more hike by year-end while not assuming further tightening in 2027. Still, eight committee members expect the rate to be a half-percentage point higher by the end of next year. That trajectory benefits the dollar — it reinforces the path toward a longer period of higher rates — and it hurts borrowers and equity markets, for which a second hike this year implies a longer period of expensive money than assumed as recently as summer.
Notably, none of the three speakers has a vote on the rate committee this year, and that lack of a formal vote appears to give them greater freedom to speak plainly than the current leadership. Barkin openly admitted he does not know whether further hikes will be needed or how many there might be, saying "we'll see," while describing the economy and labor market as standing on a solid footing and noting that businesses report strengthening conditions more than deterioration.
In my view, the collective message from these three speeches is less a new signal and more an indication that consensus within the Fed for another interest rate hike this year is broader than the formal, neutral tone of last week's announcement suggested. I don't rule out that this sequence of statements from both voting and non-voting members is preparing the market for firmer rhetoric at the October meeting, which would be supportive for the dollar.
EUR/USD technical outlook
Buyers should consider ways to capture 1.1435. That would open a test of 1.1455. From there, a move to 1.1480 is possible, though doing so without support from major players will be difficult. On the downside, I expect significant buying only around 1.1410. If bids are absent there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1390 or to open long positions at 1.1375.
GBP/USD technical outlook
Sterling buyers need to overcome the immediate resistance level of 1.3340 to target 1.3370. Breaking above that mark will be challenging, with 1.3395 as the next extended target. On the downside, bears will try to seize control at 1.3305. A break below that level would deal a serious blow to bulls and could push GBP/USD to 1.3275 and then toward 1.3240.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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