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No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday — not in Germany, the UK, the euro area, or the US. Therefore, traders will have little to react to during the day, and pair volatility is likely to be low, which many have already become used to over the past one and a half to two months. Most likely we should expect a classic "quiet Monday."
Among Monday's fundamental events, the only notable item is a speech by FOMC member Austan Goolsbee. However, the Federal Reserve met last week; the central bank raised the policy rate unanimously, and most FOMC members expect at least one more hike before year-end according to the dot plot. The Fed's stance is therefore clear for now. Going forward, markets will be driven more by developments in the Middle East and incoming macro data than by FOMC speeches.
The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not currently negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Iran-backed Houthi forces continue to blockade Saudi Arabia and attack its facilities. Donald Trump has proposed an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatened sanctions on any countries that interact with it. So far, no one has backed Trump's plan, and it remains unclear whether it will be implemented. The conflict persists, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remains under threat of blockade, and oil prices remain elevated.
On the first trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely try to correct again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1461–1.1474 area, and the pound from the 1.3380–1.3386 area. Volatility may be low again today since no major events are scheduled.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.