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GBP/USD moved on Thursday in the same direction as EUR/USD. Although the European Central Bank meeting had no direct relation to the pound, the high correlation with the euro caused the pound to fall as well. We cannot say the decline was fully justified. Even though the ECB decision was predictable, it should not be dismissed. Traders also overlooked the ECB's readiness to continue tightening monetary policy. Unfortunately, the market remains focused entirely on the Fed and its policy, firmly believing in a September rate hike. We still doubt that decision, though we concede a hike could occur amid elevated inflation and an improving labor market. The US consumer-price index, to be published today, can help make a final judgment. If inflation prints above forecasts, it will further increase the odds of Fed tightening and support the US dollar. However, we should not forget the Warsh factor — he is unlikely to be eager to tighten.
On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, no trading signals were generated. Despite moderately decent intraday moves, price failed to reach or work out any important levels or zones.
On the hourly TF, GBP/USD continues a downward corrective trend that may end soon. In our view, sterling should keep rising in the medium term under most scenarios, but for now it remains in correction. On the weekly TF, the move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper boundary continues and may not yet be complete. Thus we expect a resumption of the northbound impulse.
On Friday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3380–1.3386 if price closes below 1.3456–1.3476. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3587–1.3598 in case of a bounce from 1.3456–1.3476.
On the 5-minute TF, you can trade the levels 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. On Friday, the UK will publish GDP and industrial-production data, but the market may calmly ignore these reports. In the US, the event of the week — the August inflation report — will be released and could strongly affect the Federal Reserve's decision next week.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
