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Yesterday's session ran without Americans, and that showed in the result. The US Labor Day holiday removed the usual market activity; the dollar was left without domestic data or demand from its own participants, and volatility contracted to a minimum. Euro buyers, leaning on the recent strong eurozone GDP print, attempted to push the pair above the daily high but failed to hold it. For a thin market, the outcome is natural — any move peters out quickly.
Today the setup changes, though not radically. In the first half of the day Germany publishes its foreign trade balance, followed by French trade data, and then attention shifts to parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary-policy report. The first two releases normally pass almost unnoticed, but after a holiday session — when the market looks for any excuse to move — the German figure can give the euro the first impulse of the day. A strong positive trade balance favors the single currency; a weak one would confirm export-model problems and push the pair back down the range. The BoE hearings carry considerably more potential because they address not past months, but the central bank's forward view on rates, and any remark about the pace of easing can move the pound.
The level is interesting because stops cluster behind it; when price takes it out, movement gains extra acceleration. We join the impulse on the actual breakout rather than trying to guess it in advance.
We trade against those who rushed. Price breaches a level, fails to find a big buyer or seller there, and returns — stranded participants and their stops amplify the pullback.
Today I split the day into two parts. Before the German and French releases, the market remains an extension of yesterday's lull, and range-boundary trades are more appropriate. After the publications — and especially once the BoE hearings begin — priority shifts toward breakout scenarios, because the market finally has a reason for directional movement that it lacked yesterday. For the euro, I lean toward continued attempts to push higher, but without confirmation from the US session, the upper targets will be hard to reach. For the pound, I do not rule out a sharp range expansion in the afternoon; I prefer to wait for the reaction to the hearings rather than take a preemptive position.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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