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After a small upward retracement in the morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum resumed their decline during the European session. Bitcoin has already reached $76,120, while Ethereum fell to $2,352.
The decline is continuing amid a new escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. Strikes on Iranian targets and statements in response from Tehran pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel, increasing inflation expectations, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to almost 70%. All of this is discouraging buyers of risk assets from taking more active positions, and cryptocurrencies are no exception.
Market sentiment has clearly shifted to the bearish side. The ratio of buy and sell trading volumes over the past 24 hours has shifted in favor of sellers, with short positions accounting for 51.5% of the flow, according to Coinglass data. Notably, this occurred after several consecutive days of neutral readings, meaning that the shift in sentiment has occurred precisely now. This divergence between rising trading volumes and unchanged open interest is the main feature of the current decline.
However, there is also a positive factor. Despite the decline in Bitcoin's price, there are no signs that traders are actively using leverage to bet on further declines: open interest in Bitcoin futures remains unchanged at around 700,000 BTC, which is significantly below this year's peak of 801,000 BTC. In other words, positioning remains limited, and the decline is driven more by spot selling than by aggressive leveraged positions.
Bitcoin
Buying Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $76,900, with a target of $78,300. Around $78,300, I will close the long positions and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $76,100 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $76,900 and $78,300.
Selling Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $76,100, with a target of $75,300. Around $75,300, I will close the short positions and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $76,900 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $76,100 and $75,300.
Ethereum
Buying Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $2,383, with a target of $2,423. Around $2,423, I will close the long positions and immediately look to sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $2,352 if there is no market reaction to a break below this level, with a return toward $2,383 and $2,423.
Selling Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $2,352, with a target of $2,305. Around $2,305, I will close the short positions and immediately look to buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,383 if there is no market reaction to a break above this level, with a return toward $2,352 and $2,305.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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