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The price test at 1.3652 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.3623.
A strong business activity report supported the dollar on Friday and undermined the pound's position. The composite PMI soared to 56.0 from 54.5, while the services index jumped to 56.8, indicating the best quarter for American business in four years. Since PMI indices are among the first to capture the state of the economy, such a sharp rise boosted confidence in the economy's resilience and added support for the dollar, especially since employment, according to the surveys, rose at the fastest rate since January 2025.
In this context, the British pound became dependent on external forces and surrendered to the dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. currency undermined demand for riskier assets, causing the GBP/USD pair to retreat.
However, today's empty economic calendar for the UK puts the pound back at the mercy of external factors. Under favorable conditions, buyers of the pound will retain their ability to maintain the initiative, and with support from a weakening dollar, they may even manage to sustain the rise in GBP/USD. The absence of domestic stimuli makes it easier for the pair to solidify last week's advantage.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3649 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 1.3671 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3671, I plan to exit long positions and sell immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the pound to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3634, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3649 and 1.3671.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below 1.3634 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3610, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3649, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3634 and 1.3610.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
