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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rose to the 1.3633–1.3641 resistance level on Thursday and is trading near it on Friday morning. Consolidation above this zone would allow for a continuation of the advance toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.3731. Consolidation below this zone would allow traders to expect a slight decline toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3556.
The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (which is not yet complete) broke the previous peak. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage is strengthening with each passing day. The bullish trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken, i.e., below 1.3414, or after two downward waves are formed.
There was no fundamental background in the UK or the US on Thursday, but traders have not experienced a lack of news overall this week. Dollar selling has continued after the U.S. Treasury decided to increase bond buybacks in order to lower their yields and reduce the debt burden on the budget, and this decision quite predictably triggered widespread dollar selling. The market also continues to reduce its exposure to the U.S. currency amid a lower probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening. None of the other reports or factors this week has affected the market's bearish sentiment toward the dollar. For example, the FOMC minutes could, if desired, be described as hawkish, but no one believed that the regulator's hawkish stance is still in place. The UK unemployment and inflation reports could also, if desired, have been interpreted in favor of the dollar, but the market chose to ignore them. This morning, the UK retail sales report was released, and the market also failed to pay much attention to it.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3467–1.3482 support level and rose to the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3538. Consolidation above 1.3657 would increase the chances of further gains for the pound. No new emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,256, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,663. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 65,000 versus 121,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears' advantage nevertheless remains substantial. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but now it is, as the fundamental background has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near future, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
The economic calendar for August 21 contains seven entries, but these releases are not the most important under the current circumstances. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday may be limited.
Selling the pair is possible today if it rebounds from the 1.3633–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3556. Buying was possible on a rebound from 1.3526, with targets at 1.3556 and 1.3633–1.3641. All targets have been reached. Today, consolidation above this zone would allow traders to keep positions open with a target of 1.3731.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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