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The price test at 1.3567 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips.
The July Federal Reserve minutes turned out to be stricter than expected, yet the dollar still weakened sharply; the reason for this discrepancy lies in the US Treasury's decision to increase bond buybacks. The minutes themselves provided reasons for the dollar to strengthen, as the pause at the 3.50–3.75% rate passed by just nine votes to three. The Fed sees the causes of rising prices as broad rather than one-off, attributing them to tariffs, energy, the Middle East conflict, and demand driven by investments in artificial intelligence. Such a sentiment indicated some committee members' readiness to tighten. The British pound took advantage of the dollar's weakness and strengthened against it. The withdrawal of demand from the American currency rekindled interest in higher-yielding assets, and GBP/USD recovered positions.
Today, the pound enters the first half of the day with a sparse agenda, the only item being the Confederation of British Industry's balance of industrial orders. This indicator reflects sentiment in the manufacturing sector through company surveys and is considered a leading signal; however, its weight in the currency market is not substantial, and it rarely serves as a standalone driver of the British currency. Therefore, this release is unlikely to cause a significant reaction in the pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.3615 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3635 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3635, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pound today can be anticipated to continue the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3598 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3615 and 1.3635 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3598 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3575, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3615 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3598 and 1.3575 can be expected.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
