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On Tuesday, gold appeared to lag, especially since oil prices stopped rising and returned to the previous day's closing levels. Let's try to understand the situation.
The movement in XAU/USD looks contradictory, but only at first glance.
Despite the stabilization of oil prices, the yellow metal has come under pressure. The key reason is the combined impact of two powerful factors that outweighed the influence of energy prices.
While oil prices stabilized, the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds reached multi-year highs. This creates pressure on gold because:
Gold has significantly increased in price over the past two weeks. Tuesday's decline appears to be a natural technical correction and profit-taking after such growth, economists say. Investors locking in profits close their long positions, adding further pressure to the price.
Even if oil prices did not continue to rise on Tuesday, the increases kept inflation risks in focus: investors fear that high energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain a more stringent monetary policy to combat inflation. This, in turn, supports high bond yields and strengthens the dollar, which pressures gold.
In conclusion, the pressure on gold was driven not by oil dynamics in itself, but by rising bond yields and profit-taking. These factors have proven stronger than any potential support from stabilizing oil prices.
Gold is in an interesting phase. According to a survey of 10 Wall Street analysts, 9 of them (90%) expect further increases in gold prices next week. Among 150 large retail investors, 68% also anticipate continued growth, media reports.
The current technical picture looks like a short-term correction within an ongoing upward trend. By the end of the American session on Tuesday, gold was testing support in the area of 4340.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) to 4350.00.
The main driver will be the FOMC meeting minutes, which are expected to be released on Wednesday. They may provide key insights into how strong the disagreements within the Committee were. In July, the vote passed 9-3, marking the first three dissenting votes since 2016. If the minutes reveal more dissenters than previously thought, this could support gold. Otherwise, it could exert pressure.
| Date | Event | Expected Impact on XAU/USD |
|---|---|---|
August 19 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | "Dovish" tone = support; "Hawkish" = pressure |
August 27-29 | Jackson Hole Symposium | Fed signals = key driver |
Market Entry Points
It is noted that now is not the best time for purchases—it's preferable to wait for a pullback.
Buy Scenario on a Pullback (Priority):
Breakout Scenario:
Bearish Scenario:
Most Likely Scenario — consolidation in the range of 4290.00–4450.00 with a subsequent breakout upward in response to favorable signals from the Fed.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.