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The price test at 1.3563 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound; however, the pair ultimately did not rise.
Positive U.S. data supported the dollar in the afternoon and undermined risk assets. The Empire State manufacturing index surged by 5 points to 20.6, reflecting the highest level of business activity in New York's manufacturing sector in over four years. This result alleviated some concerns about economic slowdown and strengthened arguments for a more hawkish Fed, which the American currency capitalized on. Against this backdrop, the British pound became dependent on external forces and surrendered ground to the dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. currency diminished demand for riskier assets, causing GBP/USD to retreat. A weak report on the housing market could have served as a mitigating factor, as the NAHB index rose only 1 point to 35 and remained deep in pessimistic territory; however, the market regarded this signal as secondary. The pound had no driving factors of its own, so the strength of the dollar primarily determined the extent of its decline.
Today, the British currency enters the first half of the day with an eye on a significant block of labor market data, including the unemployment rate and changes in the number of unemployment claims. Employment data holds particular weight for the pound, as it shapes expectations for the Bank of England's policy, and the market reacts primarily to deviations of actual figures from forecasts. An increase in the number of claims signals weakening labor market conditions, while a decrease indicates its resilience. The setup for the pair appears cautious. If the figures disappoint and are worse than economists' forecasts, pressure on GBP/USD will only increase, as weakness in employment undermines confidence in the economy's resilience and gives the BoE more reason for caution.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
