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Today, Brent approached the $88 per barrel mark, maintaining a four-day rise after a 5 percent increase in the previous session, while WTI surpassed $82. The cause was a sharp tightening of Washington's position: yesterday, President Trump made new extensive demands on Iran, which seriously complicated the prospects for a deal to resume operations in the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy flows.
The American leader demanded compensation from Iran for people killed in conflicts, after Tehran again requested reparations in negotiations to end the war. In a social media post, Trump stated that he would present new demands in all future negotiations, effectively ruling out an immediate agreement between the parties. The demands cover compensation for deaths and injuries resulting from Iran's actions, as well as for damage and loss of life in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza.
Trump's position contradicts previously reached agreements. On Monday, he stated that compensation to Iran had never been mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings. However, the agreed-upon memorandum of understanding from June, signed by Tehran and Washington, outlines plans by the U.S. and regional partners to establish a $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran after the war. This discrepancy between current rhetoric and the signed document's content complicates the negotiating position.
The real picture of shipping confirms the seriousness of the situation. Approximately five vessels pass through the Strait daily, significantly fewer than the approximately 14 vessels per day observed after the memorandum was reached in June. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volume was transported via this waterway to global markets.
Given that the strait remains closed, global inventories have sharply declined, and flows are far from normal levels, we will likely see aggressive short-position closures again soon. Against this backdrop, Brent could jump by $10- $ 15 from current levels.
Meanwhile, the deadlock in negotiations continues in both directions. Iran and Oman continue to discuss an agreement to resume operations in the strait; however, Tehran reiterated on Monday that any agreement would require the U.S. to lift the blockade and provide compensation for damages.
Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $83.50. This will allow them to target $86.60, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest objective will be around $89.56. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control at $81.10. If they succeed, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $78.70, with the prospect of reaching $76.30.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
