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The price test at 1.1533 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.
The disappointing employment report slammed the dollar and strengthened the single currency. Instead of the expected increase of 97,000, nonfarm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000, and this sharp gap with the forecast set the market reaction. Non-Farm Payrolls reflects hiring dynamics and serves as a barometer of economic health, so such a weak result signaled cooling and undermined expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. A certain ambiguity was added by the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly fell to 4.1 percent versus the forecast of 4.2 percent.
Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with a sparse agenda, with the only item being the Sentix investor confidence indicator. The index shows how optimistic market participants are about the eurozone economy and can signal a change in sentiment in advance, but its weight for the FX market is small. It is unlikely this release will set an independent direction for the single currency. With such weak reports, the initiative for the euro will remain on the external side.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1560 (green line on the chart), aiming for a move to 1.1575. At 1.1575, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect euro growth only after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1550 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels 1.1560 and 1.1575.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1550 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1536, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1560, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels 1.1550 and 1.1536.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
