The test of the 1.1542 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for long positions. However, the pair failed to generate any significant upward momentum.
The July eurozone business activity report came in stronger than expected, providing support for the euro. The Composite PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.0, while the services sector returned to growth for the first time in three months, pointing to quarterly GDP growth of around 0.3%. Since services account for the largest share of the eurozone economy, the sector's recovery was an important positive signal. France remained the only major underperformer, while Germany returned to growth and Spain posted particularly strong expansion. Easing inflationary pressures and business optimism rising to its highest level since January further reinforced the positive outlook. Nevertheless, the single currency reacted with only modest gains. The restrained market response was largely due to a cautionary remark from S&P Global Chief Economist Chris Williamson, who noted that much of the improvement was supported by lower oil prices in June, while the renewed escalation in the Middle East has once again increased risks to both economic growth and inflation.
The euro will spend the second half of the day awaiting key U.S. economic data that could shift market sentiment. The ISM Services PMI, the Composite PMI, and the ADP Employment Change report are scheduled for release, followed by remarks from FOMC member Lisa Cook. The ADP report is closely watched because it provides an early indication of labor market conditions, while the PMI data offer insight into business activity. Both releases have a direct impact on expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. The outlook for the euro is straightforward. Forecasts suggest the data are likely to come in relatively strong, and if confirmed, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures would support the euro. Lisa Cook's speech also deserves close attention, as any hints regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path could trigger sharp moves in the pair. As a result, elevated volatility is expected during the U.S. session.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches 1.1545 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1565. At 1.1565, I intend to exit my long positions and consider opening short positions in anticipation of a 30–35 point pullback from the entry level. A stronger euro can be expected if the U.S. data come in weaker than forecast. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1532 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1545 and 1.1565 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1532 (the red line on the chart). The downward target will be 1.1509, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data come in strong. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1545 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1532 and 1.1509 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire trading capital very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.
Finally, remember that successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market movements is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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