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The test of the 1.3350 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair moved higher toward the target level of 1.3378.
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the 6–3 voting split showed a noticeable shift toward a more hawkish stance, which supported the pound. Governor Andrew Bailey explained the reasoning behind the decision:
"There is still little evidence of second-round effects, although it is too early to draw any reassuring conclusions. Maintaining Bank Rate at its current level is appropriate, as the global environment appears more uncertain and inflationary, while domestic conditions are generally more favorable."
The Committee noted clear signs of easing domestic price pressures and restored its inflation forecast, which it had previously abandoned in April. The base scenario assumes inflation will peak at 3.2% by the end of the year before returning to the target level in 2027. Meanwhile, the downside scenario, based on oil prices remaining above $100, allows for inflation to rise to 4.5% in the second quarter of 2027.
During the U.S. session, the direction of the pound will largely depend on U.S. economic data, as there are no major domestic catalysts for the British currency today. Market attention will focus on second-quarter GDP, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and personal income and spending data.
GDP reflects the pace of economic growth, the PCE Price Index serves as the Federal Reserve's primary inflation indicator, and consumer data show the strength of U.S. household demand. Through these channels, the reports can directly influence the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point is reached near 1.3398 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3430 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3430, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move back from the level. The pound is likely to strengthen today only if the U.S. economic data come in weaker than expected.
Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.
I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.3370 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a bullish reversal. In this case, the upside targets would be 1.3398 and 1.3430.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3370 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3339, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Selling pressure on the pound is likely to return if the U.S. economic data are strong.
Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.
I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.3398 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a bearish reversal. In this case, the downside targets would be 1.3370 and 1.3339.
Chart Legend
Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is usually best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
If you decide to trade during major news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire account balance, especially if you do not apply proper risk management and trade with large position sizes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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