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Nasdaq100 (NDX): the key level 29,140.0 remains the main watershed for short?term dynamics. This week the market's attention will be focused on tech giants' earnings and developments in geopolitics, which could provide new signals for the next move.
The tech index Nasdaq100 is trading with optimism on Tuesday, with futures up about 1.3% and trading near 29,050.0 and the EMA144 (1-hour chart) in the early hours of the US session. US equities are being supported by two key factors: a recovery in the semiconductor sector after the recent correction and expectations of strong earnings from tech "giants" that should confirm resilient demand for AI-related products and services.
The start of the week was mixed. On Monday, the benchmark stock indices closed lower: the Dow lost 0.59%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq100 dropped 0.05%. The market felt pressure from a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (the tenth night of US strikes on Iran) and higher oil prices, which raised inflation concerns and bolstered expectations for a hawkish Fed.
However, sentiment improved on Tuesday amid reports of possible peace talks (mediators proposing a 10-day truce), which eased inflation expectations. That, in turn, pushed Treasury yields lower and supported growth stocks, especially in the tech sector.
Fundamental backdrop: earnings season and geopolitics
Corporate reports: a test for the market. The most important phase of Q2 earnings season begins this week. Key results to watch come from leading tech companies including Alphabet (Google), Intel, Tesla, and IBM. Markets will scrutinize how AI spending is affecting the profitability of tech giants. Strong reports are expected to confirm resilient AI demand and justify high valuations in the sector.
Preliminary results already look encouraging. 3M and General Motors reported profits above expectations, and 3M shares jumped over 7%. The semiconductor recovery (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.3% on Monday and continued higher on Tuesday) is also a positive sign for Nasdaq100.
Geopolitical factor. The US–Iran conflict and Houthi threats in the Red Sea keep a geopolitical premium in oil prices. This creates inflation risks and supports expectations of sustained high interest rates, which is bearish for growth stocks—especially tech names with high multiples. However, markets have largely priced in these risks, and any signs of de-escalation could become a powerful catalyst for upside.
Brief technical analysis
Technically, Nasdaq100 retains a short-term bearish bias, but indicators point to possible consolidation or a bounce. On the 1-hour chart, the price is testing the key resistance zone at 29,050.0–29,140.0 (EMA144 and EMA200), which could cap any rebound.
The price is also trading below the 50-day EMA (29,050.0), which acts as significant resistance. However, the 200-day EMA (26,700.0) sits well below current levels, confirming the longer-term uptrend, though the corrective phase may continue.
The most likely scenario is volatile consolidation in the 28,500.0–29,200.0 range, with an attempt to break higher if corporate reports are high and geopolitical risks ease.
Key events to watch
| Date | Event | Forecast | Expected impact on NASDAQ100 |
| July 21 | Reports by 3M, GM, Halliburton | expected strong results | bullish for the market |
| July 23 | Reports by Alphabet, Intel, IBM | expected strong results | key driver for the tech sector |
| July 24 | Report by Tesla | expected strong results | impacts sentiment in EV and AI sectors |
| July 23 | US initial jobless claims | — | impacts Fed policy expectations |
| July 24 | Preliminary PMIs for the US and eurozone | — | affects growth and demand outlook |
| July 29 | FOMC policy meeting | expected to keep the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% | dovish signals = market support; hawkish = pressure |
Conclusion and recommendations for investors
The Nasdaq100 is at a decisive phase where bullish momentum from the semiconductor rebound and anticipated strong earnings meets bearish pressure from geopolitics and persistently high rates. The key level 29,140.0 remains the main dividing line for short-term dynamics. This week, the market will watch tech earnings and geopolitical developments for fresh directional cues.
For short-term traders: prioritize long positions on a break above 29,140.0 with targets 29,330.0–29,850.0. Consider short positions only on a confirmed break below 28,500.0 supported by fundamental catalysts.
For medium?term investors: take a wait-and-see stance until geopolitics and earnings clarify the picture. A correction to 28,100.0–28,500.0 could be used to add longs if tech sector fundamentals remain strong.
Risk management: remain cautious due to high volatility linked to geopolitical events and earnings. Use stop-losses and monitor developments in the Middle East and company results closely.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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