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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to trade not far from their one-year lows and are still undergoing a correction. Over the past three weeks, both Ethereum and Bitcoin have managed a slight recovery, but there are still no signs of an end to the downtrend that began last year. The fundamental backdrop for the crypto segment remains weak, mainly expressed in low spot demand, capital flow into the AI sector, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving 2% inflation, which implies, at least, the maintenance of tight monetary policy. Thus, we still do not see grounds for a sustained rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, experts at Standard Chartered believe bitcoin will return to the $100,000 level by year-end. They noted that recent months have been tough for the leading cryptocurrency, worsened by Strategy's first bitcoin sale in six years. However, the bank's experts are confident that Strategy will buy its coins back and even increase its bitcoin reserve in 2026. According to the analysts, many market participants had equated Strategy's approach with the bitcoin trend. Put simply, many relied on the actions of Michael Saylor's company, which had continually been increasing its crypto holdings. But over the past 9–10 months, Bitcoin has lost more than 50%, Strategy's shares are trading below par, and the company itself has begun to experience liquidity problems.
The company was forced to sell a small portion of its coins to increase dollar reserves needed to pay dividends on its common and preferred shares, the proceeds from which had been directed to buying "digital gold." This was also intended to calm a market that had already begun to contemplate the company's collapse due to losses on its bitcoin positions. It is unclear on what basis exactly the Standard Chartered experts expect a rise to $100,000. Likely the logic is the same as many others': Bitcoin corrections typically last about a year.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been tested. But we do not believe the downtrend will end there. The last bearish FVG was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, so this area acts as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in the second leg of its correction, but sell trades remain more attractive because any rise is, a priori, just a correction. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is currently only a bullish FVG.
A downtrend that began in August last year continues to form on the daily timeframe. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either bitcoin or ether. The price has left the sideways channel, so the flat can be considered over. A deviation of the upper band of the sideways channel never formed, so there were no grounds to open short positions. At present, the working pattern is a bullish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe. On the daily timeframe, we still recommend orienting by Bitcoin's patterns.
CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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