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The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil showed a slight decline on Thursday but remained above the 200-day SMA. This movement was caused by profit-taking from investors after two consecutive days of gains. Despite the current decline, pressure remains limited, as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support oil prices.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated following a new wave of US airstrikes on Iranian facilities. In response, Tehran attacked several American military bases in the Persian Gulf and promised further actions in retaliation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding with Iran, which was supposed to help reduce the level of conflict, invalid, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the region.
Markets are closely monitoring events in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass. Ongoing threats from Iran to close this strategic route fuel concerns about potential supply disruptions, which in turn keep the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices high.
Analysts at ING believe the market's future will largely depend on whether Washington and Tehran can quickly de-escalate tensions. The bank also noted that Russia's temporary export moratorium on diesel fuel until the end of July increases concerns over petroleum product supplies and may further boost demand for oil from the US.
At the same time, Commerzbank suggests that the market has likely underestimated the risks to global oil supply. The bank argues that the clear failures in negotiations between Washington and Tehran highlight that the conflict is far from resolved, prompting investors to reconsider the high geopolitical risk premium in energy market prices.
Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.998 million barrels in the week ending July 3, marking the first increase in 11 weeks and significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts. However, this report did not have a significant impact on price fluctuations, as traders continue to focus primarily on geopolitical factors rather than short-term supply changes.
From a technical perspective, prices are attempting to remain above the 200-day SMA, which favors the bulls. However, the oscillators on the daily chart have not yet moved into negative territory, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. The round level of 76.00 now serves as resistance, while support is provided by the 200-day SMA and just below by the 9-day EMA. If prices cannot hold above these levels, they may fall back to 69.00 and then to the July low.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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