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I think few expected strong dollar moves last Friday.
Due to the Independence Day holiday in the U.S., trading activity in the currency market was notably reduced. On Friday, the day before the holiday, volatility remained at a relatively low level, resulting in a lack of pronounced price movements across most major currency pairs, including the U.S. dollar. However, this period of calm does not imply a complete absence of fundamental factors affecting the markets. Economic data releases, statements from central bank representatives, and geopolitical news will continue to flow this week, forming the basis for potential reversals and trends.
Today's trading session promises to be rich in economic data that may significantly impact currency pair dynamics. In the first half of the day, market participants will be focused on key indicators from the Eurozone. Among these are data on changes in industrial orders in Germany, an important indicator of manufacturing activity and potential economic growth. This will be followed by the publication of the Eurozone producer price index, which can provide insight into inflationary pressures in the production sector. The block of important data will conclude with the Eurozone retail sales report, reflecting consumer activity and, accordingly, the state of demand.
If today's published data exceeds analysts' forecasts, it could serve as a significant catalyst for the euro's strengthening.
As for the pound, there are no reports scheduled for the UK during the European session today, which means that pressure on the GBP/USD pair may persist. The lack of fresh macroeconomic data means that traders will have to rely on technical factors and overall market sentiment. The British pound, which has already shown some weakness recently, may continue to lose ground amid uncertainty and low liquidity typical of days without significant news.
If the data meets economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be most appropriate.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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