Bitcoin has resumed its decline, losing about $8,000 in value over the past two weeks and returning to the $59,000 - $60,000 range. On the 4-hour timeframe, an upward corrective trend has broken, so Bitcoin could continue to decline over the coming days. Three bearish FVGs formed on the 4-hour timeframe, each triggering a price reaction. Unfortunately, the most obvious FVG on the daily timeframe was not worked out, but could still be addressed in the future. Either way, the first cryptocurrency remains aimed at a decline, which we have warned about multiple times. Discussing liquidity removals from recent lows is irrelevant, as this is generally a manipulative move, after which there is a sharp movement in the opposite direction. Bitcoin is currently within a typical downward impulse. If the last bearish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe is canceled, then a new wave of corrective movement can be expected.
Meanwhile, a survey was conducted among AI-based chatbots. The most popular bots were asked a simple question: when will Bitcoin return above the $100,000 mark? The answers were quite interesting. For example, Grok believes that the $100,000 mark will be reached in the first quarter of 2027, based on the influx of funds into spot instruments, stabilization of global liquidity, and easing of the Fed's monetary policy. Venice AI believes that the $100,000 level will be reached by March of next year due to supply reduction from the "halving" (which took place back in 2024). Venice AI argues that the "halving" remains a basis for growth in the first cryptocurrency, although it admits that its effects manifest over 12-18 months. It has already been 26 months. Other surveyed chatbots also indicated that the $100,000 mark will be reached eventually; the question is only about the timing. However, it is interesting that the bots listed all possible reasons for the growth of "digital gold" without considering whether these factors are currently present. For instance, Grok expects a decrease in the Federal Reserve's key rate...
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is bearish, and the CHOCH line has been moved to $82,800 after a new LL (Lower Low) has formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend has ended. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a new bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range. New sell signals may be formed within this pattern. However, at this moment, the pattern has not been worked out. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching its next target — $57,500. Note that we do not consider this level to be a "final stop."
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has completed a rising correction. The CHOCH line supporting the correction has been breached. A new CHOCH line, supporting the new trend, lies at the level of $65,600. Currently, Bitcoin is dealing with the third bearish FVG within the current decline. If a reaction to this pattern is received, the decline will resume. If the pattern is canceled, Bitcoin may enter a new phase of upward correction or even form a flat.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend. We expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend beginning. The last bearish FVG formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range; therefore, this area serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin may react to the last bearish FVG, providing traders with another sell signal.
CHOCH – change of trend structure.
Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders, which market makers use to establish their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such an area, the price does not react but impulsively breaches it, then tests from the other side.
OB – Order Block. A candle where the market maker opens a position to collect liquidity to establish its own position in the opposite direction.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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