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On Monday, gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to break above the round level of $4,200 and, based on current dynamics, is ending a three-day losing streak after reaching a more than one-week low the previous day. Pressure on oil prices has increased after mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced agreement on a formal 60-day plan aimed at achieving a final peace agreement between the United States and Iran. This is contributing to lower inflation expectations and reduced risks of monetary policy tightening, which provides some support for gold.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical environment is exerting mixed effects on the U.S. dollar, which limits gold's upward potential. Iran has accused the United States and Israel of violating the ceasefire and announced the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump stated readiness for further military action against Iran if Hezbollah continues its attacks. Such statements highlight the fragility of the diplomatic process and maintain elevated geopolitical risks.
At the same time, increased Russian military activity targeting major Ukrainian cities in recent weeks has been observed. This is supporting the U.S. dollar, which is recovering part of its decline from Friday's lows after reaching its highest levels since May 2025, thereby limiting gold's upside and signaling caution for buyers.
From a technical perspective, unsuccessful attempts to hold above the level where the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is located, followed by further declines, strengthen sellers' positions in gold. Oscillators remain negative, confirming bearish dominance. The nearest resistance is represented by the 9-day SMA and EMA. If overcome, the pair could move toward the round level of $4,300 and higher; however, upward potential is limited by the 200-day EMA. On the downside, traders have found support near the round level of $4,100.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
