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The euro and British pound were traded today using a Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using the Momentum strategy.
The absence of important eurozone statistics had an impact on euro volatility, while the British pound was affected more significantly. Traders, lacking fundamental data to support informed decisions, were forced to rely on speculative sentiment, which led to a sharp decline in volatility.
The British pound even fell below 1.3200 but later recovered part of its losses. The decline in the pound was a reaction to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's announcement of his resignation. The market appears to have already priced in the likelihood of a leadership change, which helped stabilize the national currency. The absence of strong volatility in GBP/USD suggests that investors perceive the current situation as predictable, despite upcoming political changes.
During the U.S. session, there is also no significant U.S. economic data, shifting market attention to the speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. His remarks may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's next steps following the recent decision, as well as its assessment of the impact of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy. Given the current geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in energy markets, any statements from Waller are likely to be closely analyzed.
Particular attention will be paid to his stance on inflation and the outlook for further monetary policy tightening. Traders will be looking for signals as to whether the Fed will maintain its current rhetoric or adjust its position in response to new geopolitical developments. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route, allows the FOMC to expect a more pronounced decline in inflation in the coming months.
In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the second half of the day:
For EUR/USD:
For GBP/USD:
For USD/JPY:
Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to Mean) for the second half of the day:
For EUR/USD:
For GBP/USD:
For AUD/USD:
For USDCAD:
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
