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The price test at 160.23 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy dollars. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 160.39.
A new chapter in Iranian-American relations, marked by another act of aggression from the United States against Iran, has not gone unnoticed on the international stage. The rapidly unfolding events once again demonstrated how geopolitical tensions can directly influence global financial markets, dictating the rules for currency pairs. In this turbulent environment, the US dollar, traditionally a safe haven for investors during periods of uncertainty, showed noticeable strengthening. The Japanese yen, often correlated with global risks, experienced the opposite pressure, showing a significant decline.
However, many experts monitoring the situation at the Bank of Japan anticipate at least two increases in the key interest rate this year, the first of which will occur next week. Many believe that the war in Iran could provoke a sustained spike in inflation, forcing the central bank to act more aggressively. This is currently the only factor preventing the yen from further decline.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 160.44 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.59, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.32, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 160.44 and 160.59.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 160.32 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.09, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.44, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 160.32 and 160.09.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
