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Today, only the Australian dollar performed well under the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not take any trades based on the Momentum strategy.
Trump's statements that the conflict in the Middle East may soon come to an end, along with a sharp increase in demand for risk assets, continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar. Strong German industrial production data allowed euro buyers to return to active trading. Traders who had previously been concerned about an escalation of tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in global growth now see reasons for a more optimistic outlook. However, despite these positive signals, caution remains warranted. Uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data scheduled for tomorrow could quickly change market sentiment.
During the second half of the day, attention will be focused on the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the trade balance report, and existing home sales data. While these indicators do not play a decisive role in shaping short-term forecasts for the U.S. economy, they may still influence trader sentiment.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is one of the leading indicators reflecting business activity and confidence among small-business owners. An improvement in this indicator generally signals a willingness among companies to invest, expand payrolls, and increase spending, which is supportive of the U.S. dollar.
The trade balance, in turn, provides insight into the relationship between a country's exports and imports. A trade deficit, where imports exceed exports, may put pressure on the national currency.
Finally, existing home sales serve as an important gauge of the housing sector and the real estate market as a whole. They also indirectly reflect consumer confidence and mortgage affordability. Strong sales figures—although unlikely given the current high mortgage rates—could also support the dollar.
If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
