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The price at 1.3632 was tested when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test at 1.3632 triggered Scenario #2 for selling the pound, resulting in a decline to around 1.3585.
Pressure on the pound quickly returned after the likelihood of a peace agreement between the US and Iran diminished. Tensions in the Middle East increased again, causing concern among investors and traders. The lack of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran undermines hopes of stabilizing the situation in the region, which puts pressure on risk assets. In such conditions, the British pound loses its appeal. The further development of events will depend on many factors, including central bank actions and the dynamics of the geopolitical situation.
Today, traders will focus on the publication of the UK construction sector business activity index. Analysts' forecasts indicate that this indicator is likely to be below the 50-point mark, which traditionally signals a decline in construction activity. Such a development could exert significant pressure on the British pound, continuing the trend of decline from yesterday's late session.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3601 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3632 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3632, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). A significant rise in the pound can only be expected after good data is released. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3590 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposing levels of 1.3601 and 1.3632 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3590 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3564 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pound may return if there is bad news from the Middle East. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3601 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposing levels of 1.3590 and 1.3564 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
