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The test of the price at 1.3493 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by 30 pips.
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the key interest rate in the target range of 3.5%-3.75%. The more hawkish position of the Fed representatives led to a strengthening of the dollar. Market participants had mixed expectations; however, most leaned towards the idea that the rate would remain unchanged. The committee's decision, however, proved more stringent than some analysts had predicted.
Today, in the first half of the day, market participants will focus on the Bank of England's statement on its key interest rate. This highly anticipated event will be complemented by the publication of a monetary policy document, which will provide a deeper analysis of the current economic situation and future trends. Financial markets are anticipating any change or maintenance of the current rate, as it could provoke significant movements in the currency market. It is forecast that the BoE will most likely keep the rate unchanged, given uneven economic growth and ongoing inflationary pressures. The report will also present an analysis of fresh economic indicators, including inflation, employment, consumer spending, and economic growth rates. Special attention will be paid to assessing risks arising from global economic uncertainty.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3471 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to the level of 1.3498 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3498, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A strong rise in the pound can only be anticipated after a firm position from the BoE. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3454 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3471 and 1.3498 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3454 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3419 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3471 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3454 and 1.3419 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
