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The test of the price at 1.3492 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3514.
Fresh rumors that Tehran may present a new peace plan to the United States, combined with disappointing macroeconomic indicators published by the University of Michigan last Friday, exerted noticeable pressure on the U.S. dollar. These two factors, acting in unison, triggered a significant weakening of the dollar, which in turn boosted demand for riskier investment assets, including the pound.
Today, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is scheduled to release retail sales data. The CBI Retail Sales Index is a leading indicator that anticipates short-term sales dynamics. Strong sales results are likely to be seen as a reassuring sign of stable consumer demand, which could lead to an increase in the value of the pound. Conversely, disappointing figures indicating a slowdown in retail sales growth could raise concerns about future economic trends in the UK, potentially weakening the pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3543 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 1.3565 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3565, I will exit the market and also open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated after strong economic data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3529 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3543 and 1.3565.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it drops below 1.3529 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3505 level, where I will exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3543 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3529 and 1.3505.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
