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In recent weeks, the British pound has built a wave structure similar to the euro. Of course, there are differences, but overall, it represents the same five-wave downward structure and a three-wave upward correction. As we approach the new week, the British pound faces the same dilemma as the euro: either the upward segment of the trend complicates and possibly evolves into an impulsive structure, or a new downward trend forms. Honestly, I am more inclined to believe the upward movement of both the euro and the pound will continue. Donald Trump has taken steps toward de-escalating the military conflict with Iran. At least, all his recent actions indicate that he does not want a resumption of war. The Strait of Hormuz remains under double blockade, but a blockade is not war; it is a means of pressure on Tehran. By blocking Iranian ports, Trump aims to cut off financial flows to Iran to push it toward a deal favorable to the U.S. Therefore, next week will require careful attention to geopolitical events.
Against the backdrop of the standard economy, the only noteworthy event in the UK will be the Bank of England meeting. Market expectations for this event are clear: no change in monetary policy parameters. The market does not believe that any member of the MPC will vote for a rate increase or decrease. Deviations from forecasts do happen frequently, but it appears this is not the case this time. Consequently, both the ECB and the Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged, significantly reducing the odds of a market reaction to these events. All important reports in the UK were released last week, and they also went unnoticed. Thus, geopolitical factors will once again take precedence, at least for the GBP/USD instrument. However, the dynamics of the EUR/USD instrument may cause GBP/USD to move similarly.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (as seen in the lower chart), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and further movement will depend on negotiations between Iran and the US.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I expected. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably wave d). The upward segment of the trend could take on a five-wave form, but for this to occur, the conflict in the Middle East needs to subside, not reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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