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Donald Trump's unilateral decision to extend the truce with Iran, as is often the case in complex geopolitics, has triggered a torrent of conflicting reactions and interpretations. However, it led to a notable increase in demand for risk assets, including the euro and the British pound, and a weakening of the US dollar in the currency market.
The announcement of a suspension of attacks until a unified proposal is presented by the Iranian leadership, reportedly prompted by diplomatic efforts from Pakistani leaders, appears to be an attempt at de-escalation and to provide room for dialogue. However, this initiative was met with deep skepticism from Tehran almost immediately.
A representative of the Iranian parliament, whose statement likely reflects the sentiments of the most radical factions, called Trump's decision "meaningless," emphasizing that "the losing side cannot dictate terms." This sharp comment highlights deep mistrust and possibly internal disagreements within the Iranian leadership regarding how to respond to the US proposals. The assertion that continuing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is equivalent to bombings and should provoke a military response underscores the tension in this strategically important region and Iran's readiness for a confrontational stance.
The Iranian news agency IRIB published a statement in which Tehran officially does not recognize the extension of the truce and reserves the right not to comply with it, citing national interests. This statement was made even before reports of signs of the US readiness to lift the blockade were published by Tasnim, AP News, and the BBC.
All of this further paints a picture of chaotic and uncertain diplomatic maneuvering. Iran seemingly uses these conflicting signals to strengthen its position and assert its independence in decision-making.
However, this situation may indicate an attempt by one of the parties to buy time to prepare for more decisive actions. If Iran indeed perceives signs of a weakening blockade, it could be seen as an opportunity to bolster its position, while talk of a "sudden attack" might merely be rhetoric aimed at exerting pressure. In any case, the initiative now lies temporarily with Iran, allowing it to shape further developments more actively.
The future escalation or de-escalation of the situation will depend on both sides' ability to engage in genuine dialogue, rather than just diplomatic maneuvers. Following the failed second phase of the peace negotiations, which never took place, Iran appears to be seeking confirmation of the possibility of the US lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may be its main objective.
As mentioned earlier, the currency market has reacted reasonably well to all of this.
Currently, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1760 level. Only this will allow targeting a test of 1.1790. From there, it can reach 1.1822, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1855. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, significant actions from major buyers are only expected around 1.1720. If no one is present there, it would be prudent to wait for a confirmation of the low at 1.1680 or to open long positions from 1.1650.
For the pound, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3530. Only this will allow targeting 1.3565, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3595. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3505. If this is achieved, breaking through the range will significantly hurt the bulls' positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3473 with the prospect of reaching 1.3450.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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