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According to Iran's news agency, Iran officially declined to hold a second round of peace talks with the United States, which came as unexpected yet, in Tehran's view, a natural development; the government made the decision after a thorough analysis of the current situation and consultations with senior leadership, and the main reasons that pushed the Iranian side to this step lie in a range of disagreements that, despite previous rounds of dialogue, remain unresolved.
One of the key stated reasons for the refusal were the excessive and unrealistic demands put forward by the American side. The Iranian delegation believes that the proposed conditions exceed reasonable bounds and ignore the country's interests and sovereignty, making compromise effectively impossible, and such demands usually indicate a desire by one side for complete domination rather than a mutually equitable settlement.
Also, Washington's contradictory stance played an important role. Iranian representatives note inconsistency between US rhetoric and actions, which undermines trust in the negotiation process, and when one hand offers dialogue while the other keeps applying pressure or issuing ultimatums, achieving a constructive result becomes extremely difficult.
Finally, the continuing maritime blockade became a significant obstacle. Iran views these actions as a direct violation of previously reached agreements and as a form of pressure incompatible with the spirit of peace talks, and, in Tehran's opinion, the blockade of shipping lanes and sea corridors is a provocation that undermines the very basis for dialogue, rendering it pointless at this stage.
Risk assets, including the euro and the British pound, reacted to these developments with corresponding declines.
As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1765 level; only that will allow them to target a test of 1.1790, and from there they can push to 1.1830, although doing so without support from major players will prove rather difficult; the most distant target will be the high at 1.1850. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1730; if no one appears there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1700 or to open long positions from 1.1680.
Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3515. Only that will allow a target of 1.3550, above which a breakout will be rather problematic. The most distant target will be the 1.3585 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3475; if they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3450 with a prospect of reaching 1.3415.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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