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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3596–1.3620, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and consolidated below the support level of 1.3513–1.3539. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the next support level of 1.3428–1.3437. A consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level would favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3596–1.3620.
The wave situation remains "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave the bears almost full control of the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported the bulls for two weeks. At present, tensions in the Middle East risk escalating again, which makes bears feel more confident. However, the geopolitical vector can change at any moment. Overall, bulls still dominate the market.
The news background on Friday triggered market reactions only in the second half of the day. After the U.S. session began, Donald Trump announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the next day Iran declared its closure. Thus, the truce between the United States and Iran remains in effect, but this has not made things easier for markets or traders. There is still a significant global shortage of energy resources, supporting high oil and gas prices. According to some insiders, negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are ongoing but very difficult. Neither side is willing to give way on key issues. Donald Trump is beginning to lose patience, and the two-week truce may end as early as Wednesday. According to some reports, the sides may extend it for another two weeks to gain more time for negotiations, but this information is unconfirmed. In general, very little confirmed information is coming in. Traders largely have to guess what is happening. Therefore, during the current week, traders will again closely monitor any developments in the Middle East, while economic data will only complement the overall picture.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a descending trend channel, which allows expectations of a full-fledged trend. After the formation of a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3540. A rebound from the 1.3482 level would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and renewed growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while short positions rose by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions is now roughly 55,000 versus 110,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is not surprising given the geopolitical situation.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full truce is still far away and that the conflict could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
April 20 contains no scheduled economic events. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. The first target has been reached, and positions can be kept open.
Buying opportunities may arise today after a rebound from the 1.3428–1.3437 level, with targets at 1.3513–1.3539 and 1.3596–1.3620.
Fibonacci retracement grids are built from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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