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20.04.202608:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro:

The test of the price at 1.1801 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 pips.

The euro rose sharply after news that Iran was willing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open until the ceasefire agreement expired. However, today, there was a sharp spike in the value of the US dollar, responding to an incident in the Persian Gulf where an Iranian trading vessel was attacked. It is likely that the planned peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran will no longer take place. The Middle Eastern conflict remains the primary driver of the currency market, so the situation there will dictate the pair's further direction.

As for data releases, the German producer price index figures will be released today. Experts predict some slowing in price growth. Nevertheless, the possibility of unexpected results that could either strengthen or weaken the euro cannot be entirely ruled out. An additional important event will be the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Her statements are traditionally scrutinized by market participants and analysts for clues about the central bank's future steps in monetary policy. Given the current inflation situation and regional economic growth forecasts, any hints of changes in key rates will take on particular significance.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1765 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.1795. At point 1.1795, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is important to only anticipate growth in the euro after positive data are released. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1747 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1765 and 1.1795 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches level 1.1747 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1716, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair may remain today within the observed correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1764 price level occur, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1747 and 1.1716 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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