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The price test at 1.1785 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 10 pips.
The situation in the Middle East is calm, allowing the euro to demonstrate growth. Thanks to the new diplomatic breakthrough, there is a real prospect of reducing risks and seeking mutually acceptable solutions. The upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations are expected to cover a wide range of issues, from Iran's nuclear program to regional security. Successful completion of these negotiations could be a turning point, opening doors to a more peaceful and stable future for the entire region. However, despite cautious optimism, experts urge against inflated expectations. Historical experience shows that the path to peace in the Middle East is winding and fraught with unforeseen challenges.
Today, traders are preparing for active trading compared to yesterday, as important macroeconomic data and the European Central Bank's report are scheduled for release. Focus will be on inflation indicators in the region, specifically the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data on core inflation, which excludes fluctuations in energy and food prices, is particularly significant, as it reflects sustainable inflation trends. This information will provide analysts and market participants with a clearer understanding of the current state of the economy and help predict the ECB's future actions. Inflation is a key factor influencing central bank decisions on monetary policy, including interest rate adjustments. Any deviations from forecasts could trigger significant market fluctuations.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1813 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1855. At 1.1855, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is reasonable to expect the euro to rise as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1796 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposing levels of 1.1813 and 1.1855.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1796 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1742, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today may return if U.S.-Iran relations deteriorate. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1813 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1796 and 1.1742.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
