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The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday after consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1696. During Monday night, however, the euro briefly fell back below 1.1696, so trading today can once again be based around this level. A rebound from 1.1696 would favor the US dollar and a renewed decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1577. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1696 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 61.8% level at 1.1770.
The wave situation on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week truce between Iran and the US supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new uptrend. However, over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again, making it much harder for bulls to continue their advance compared to last week.
On Friday, the news background was interesting for everyone except traders themselves. Important US reports on inflation and consumer confidence were largely ignored, or at least did not trigger a noticeable market reaction. However, over the weekend, direct negotiations between Iran and the US took place and ended as expected — with both sides refusing to accept each other's demands. No peace agreement was signed.
Representatives of both delegations suggested that negotiations might continue in the future, but Donald Trump clearly did not anticipate such an outcome. First, the US president stated that he was not concerned about the talks, claiming that the US had already won regardless. Then Trump decided to block the Strait of Hormuz — yes, the same strait already blocked by Iran. Now Washington intends to block it as well, to prevent Iranian oil from reaching global markets. It is difficult to say who benefits from this. Trump's objective is clear, but it is doubtful that such measures will push Iran to accept US ultimatums.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% level at 1.1617. A breakout above 1.1706 would open the way for further growth toward 1.1778 and 1.1849. Bulls have managed to break out of the descending trend channel, but weekend geopolitical developments have again favored bears. A bearish divergence on the CCI and RSI indicators allows bears to take the initiative at the start of the week.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has completely disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions amount to 208,000. Two months ago, bulls had more than double the advantage among non-commercial traders.
In the long term, large players still show strong interest in the euro. However, global events — which have been abundant in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict shows no sign of ending. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran. The US dollar may once again benefit from these events.
News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On April 13, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry, with no major releases. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Sell positions are possible today if the pair rebounds from 1.1696 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1577. Buy positions are recommended after a confirmed breakout above 1.1696, targeting 1.1770.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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