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Today, Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair nearly reached the round level of 160.00 but is showing signs of uncertainty in its upward movement, remaining below this key mark due to mixed fundamental factors.
According to Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs, household spending in February declined by 1.8% year-on-year, reinforcing the downward trend after a 1.0% drop the previous month and marking the third consecutive decline. On a monthly basis, spending rose by 1.5% for the first time in three months, partially offsetting January's 2.5% decrease, but the result fell short of analysts' expectations. Weak statistics increased pressure on the yen, supporting USD/JPY quotes.
An additional negative factor for the Japanese currency remains geopolitical instability: the war in Iran raises risks for Japan's economy, given its dependence on oil imports from the region. This reduces the likelihood of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan and strengthens bearish sentiment toward the yen. At the same time, expectations of possible government intervention to curb excessive weakening of the national currency are limiting further yen losses.
On the international stage, tensions are escalating: Iran has rejected a ceasefire proposal, while US President Donald Trump has threatened harsher measures if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These developments, combined with rising energy prices and the risk of increasing inflationary pressure, may force the US Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, supporting the dollar as a reserve currency and contributing to the rise of USD/JPY.
Today, market attention is focused on the release of US durable goods orders data, which could influence the pair's dynamics during the North American session. Nevertheless, the key driver remains the development of the conflict between the US and Iran, amid declining expectations of de-escalation and the approaching deadline set by Trump. Given the current fundamental conditions, an upward direction for USD/JPY appears preferable, confirming the potential for further growth from the local lows seen in mid-February.
From a technical perspective, the picture remains the same: the pair is trading above all moving averages, oscillators are positive, favoring the bulls. The nearest resistance is at 160.00, with support at the 9-day EMA. The path of least resistance is upward.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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