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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline throughout Thursday, a process that began overnight. A consolidation of the pair's rate below the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1577 allows traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level of 127.2% at 1.1440. A consolidation of quotes above the 1.1577 level will favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1696.
The wave situation on the hourly chart is becoming quite complex. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are approximately equal in size. Thus, it would be most logical to conclude that a sideways trend is present. In my view, this is not a sideways trend at all. Rather, these are completely unreadable movements formed as a result of constantly changing geopolitical conditions. At present, traders simply do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East.
On Thursday, there was essentially no news background in the U.S. or the Eurozone, apart from a secondary indicator on unemployment claims. Traders paid almost no attention to it—just as they have ignored many other reports and events recently. The market continues to react only to geopolitical news—and often not even to confirmed news, but to reports lacking any solid evidence. Over the past 3–4 weeks, traders have repeatedly fallen into the "Trump trap," as he continuously makes contradictory statements regarding the war in the Middle East, and traders regularly take the bait. Even by looking at the pair's movements over the past month, it is easy to see how frequently trader sentiment changes—constantly. This indicates that traders do not understand what to expect next in the Middle East, and Trump only adds to the confusion. As a result, sharp, erratic movements may persist for some time until clarity emerges regarding relations between Iran and the United States. Economic data remains in the background—even the most important reports.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the downward process may continue toward the same Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1474. Earlier, the pair closed above a descending trend channel, which slightly improves the prospects for the bulls compared to the bears. However, geopolitics remains the decisive factor. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed another 12,861 long positions and 1,008 short positions. Thus, over just six weeks, the bulls' total advantage has evaporated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions amount to 190,000. Six weeks ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. At present, all market attention is focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to intensify and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 3, the economic calendar contains two entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may become noticeable in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair was possible after closing below the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1440. These positions can be kept open for some time (for example, until the U.S. session). Buy positions will become possible after a consolidation above the 1.1577 level with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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