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The price test at 1.3415 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. A second test at 1.3415 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, leading to the implementation of Scenario #2 for selling the pound and resulting in a drop of 30 pips.
Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened noticeably. This was triggered by news of Iran's rejection of the United States' peace plan. Instead, Tehran outlined its conditions, which include full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and guarantees that the US and Israel will not resume military actions.
Today, due to the absence of significant reports from the United Kingdom, market participants' and experts' focus will shift to the statements of representatives from the Bank of England. It is important to note that the speeches from two Bank of England officials—Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Stability Committee, and Megan Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee—could significantly impact the pound. These addresses carry special importance because they may provide valuable insights into the British central bank's future actions. Greene's opinion will undoubtedly attract the most attention, as this division is responsible for decisions regarding the key interest rate. Market participants will closely analyze any signals hinting at possible changes in monetary policy—especially regarding tightening measures.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3367 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth towards 1.3388 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3388, I plan to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect the pound to rise only after strong statements from policymakers today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3350 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3367 and 1.3388.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3350 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3328 level, where I plan to exit my short positions and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound could return if there are soft statements. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3367 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3350 and 1.3328.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
