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The EUR/USD currency pair declined slightly on Wednesday, but it has been trading sideways over the last few days. There are currently no reasons for further euro growth, as geopolitical factors continue to block all technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, with no positive news from the Middle Eastern front. There are also no reasons for a new rise in the US dollar, as the conflict in the Middle East has recently subsided somewhat. We do not mean a ceasefire or truce; we mean that the flow of information has shifted direction. Now, the news cycle is filled with reports of potential negotiations and ceasefires. Donald Trump has made several gestures in favor of Iran, but Tehran has no intention of agreeing to a truce after many of its military, nuclear, and governmental facilities have been destroyed. Iran understands very well that it currently controls global oil and gas prices. If Iran suffers, the entire world will suffer.
Thus, there are no concrete signs of an end to the war in the Middle East. There are only rumors, conjectures, and insider reports that, in most cases, do not reflect reality. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe persists, but it is very fragile.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, two trading signals were formed. The price bounced twice off the 1.1615 level, each time giving traders the opportunity to open short positions. The signals were similar, so traders could open only one trade. By the end of the day, the pair managed to drop around 25-40 pips, which traders could pocket.
The latest COT report is dated March 17. In the weekly timeframe illustration, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but it is rapidly declining due to geopolitical events at the beginning of 2026. Traders are mass-selling the euro in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is once again acting as a "reserve currency," ensuring a sharp influx of buyers.
We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency. However, there are enough factors for a potential decline in the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but once this factor expires, everything could revert to its previous state. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as 1.06 (trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant.
The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 52,800, while the number of shorts increased by 31,200. Consequently, the net position decreased by 84,000 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a weak and uncertain upward trend. A new escalation in the Middle East, new shocks in the oil or gas market, and the expansion of the conflict beyond the Middle East could provoke a new wave of dollar buying, making the trend quite formal. Any rise in the European currency is inherently unstable now and depends on Trump's decisions.
For March 26, we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1538) and Kijun-sen line (1.1550). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Thursday, Germany will publish the GfK consumer confidence index, and the US will release initial unemployment claims. Neither report is even secondary; it's tertiary. If no significant geopolitical news emerges during the day, we can expect sluggish movements within a limited range.
On Thursday, traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1538-1.1550 area, targeting 1.1426. Long positions can be opened with targets at 1.1615-1.1625 and 1.1657-1.1666 if the price bounces from the Ichimoku indicator lines.
Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of the net position for each category of traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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