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The EUR/USD pair was unable to continue its upward movement on Friday, but it also did not begin to decline immediately. However, a rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1577 worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, and a decline still began toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1440. A consolidation above 1.1577 would allow traders to expect renewed growth toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1696.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, the trend may be shifting back to bullish. Actions by Donald Trump in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military activity involving multiple countries, which has supported the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. The outlook for bears still appears stronger than for bulls.
On Friday, there was no significant news flow, and the market essentially took an unscheduled break. On Thursday, meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank took place, and the day before that, the Federal Reserve meeting occurred. Traders therefore received a large amount of important information. This time, the information was indeed significant, as both the Bank of England and the ECB signaled readiness to resume monetary tightening amid rising inflation risks. Of course, it is still too early to assess inflation dynamics for March and beyond, but the Bank of England has already projected an increase from 3% to 3.5% this month. Thus, the prospect of interest rate hikes in Europe and the UK is very real.
However, bears did not retreat for long. A new week began, Trump promised strikes on Iran's energy sector, Iran responded with threats to target energy infrastructure across the Middle East, and the dollar resumed its growth. As a result, the global flight from risk continues, which is clearly reflected in the COT reports. Last week saw a massive closure of both long and short positions in the euro. Europe is on the brink of an energy crisis, so even tighter ECB policy is not providing strong support for the euro.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1617, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar within a descending trend channel. Thus, the decline may continue toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474. A bullish trend will become possible only after the euro closes above the channel. The first target for bulls is the 1.1706 level. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 52,800 long positions and opened 31,212 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish overall thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have seen a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions.
The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 213,000, while short positions amount to 191,000. The bulls' advantage has almost completely disappeared in just a few weeks.
Overall, in the long term, large players still show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, all attention is focused on the Middle East, where the conflict continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. So far, the U.S. dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
March 23 contains no significant economic events. The news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Sell positions were possible after a rebound from 1.1577, targeting 1.1440. These trades can still be held open. Buy positions could be opened after a rebound from 1.1440 with a target of 1.1577 (already reached). New buy positions are possible after a close above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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