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The dollar continued to lose ground yesterday. It appears that developments in the Middle East and the upcoming central bank meetings are seriously affecting the willingness to continue purchasing the dollar and safe assets.
Yesterday's statements from Trump that the war with Iran would end in the coming days only bolstered demand for riskier assets, although such phrases have been heard quite frequently lately. On one hand, this helps reduce geopolitical tension, which normally has a positive effect on investor sentiment. On the other hand, such statements have been made many times before, while bombings in the Middle East continue unabated.
Today, during the first half of the day, global financial markets will focus on the publication of important macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. Specifically, updated data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core prices for February of this year are expected. These indicators are crucial for assessing inflationary processes in the region and, accordingly, for shaping expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding further monetary policy. The CPI data allows for assessing the overall inflation level, while the core inflation indicator, which excludes the most volatile components such as energy prices and food, provides a more accurate view of current pricing trends that the ECB pays special attention to when setting interest rates.
However, it should be noted that the February data will not fully reflect current price levels, as the US and Israel's war with Iran, which began in March, has significantly impacted energy prices worldwide.
Regarding the pound, the lack of fresh UK data will hinder its further strengthening. The deficit of macroeconomic information from the United Kingdom creates uncertainty among market participants relying on fundamental analysis, especially ahead of the Bank of England's meeting. Without new reports on inflation, employment, or GDP, the currency's dynamics will largely be determined by technical factors and speculative sentiment.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it would be advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
