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The price test at 1.1485 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had risen sharply from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.
Last Friday, the US dollar strengthened again despite a noticeable slowdown in the US economic growth rate at the end of the previous year and the stability of inflationary processes. This seemingly contradictory dynamic prompted active discussions among experts and market participants, leading them to revise their expectations regarding future trends in currency trading. Despite concerns about a possible economic slowdown, inflation indicators demonstrated resilience. Their level, according to many economists, while not requiring immediate action from the Federal Reserve, creates a mixed picture for the national currency. On one hand, weak economic indicators typically exert pressure on the dollar's exchange rate. On the other hand, stable inflation may prevent the Fed from taking decisive stimulus measures, which, in turn, could potentially support the dollar in the short term.
Today, no data from the Eurozone is expected in the first half of the day, which could contribute to further declines in the EUR/USD pair. The previously prevailing bearish sentiments towards the currency pair may receive additional support after another escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Despite all of Trump's claims about the imminent end of the war with Iran, there are currently no real plans to conclude it.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1442 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1482. At the point 1.1482, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise today within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1415 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1442 and 1.1482.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1431 (red line on the chart). The target will be at level 1.1375, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expected movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1442 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1415 and 1.1375.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
