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The answer to this question may not even be provided by the most brilliant economist, but let's try to sort it out. America, along with Israel, has stirred up a hornet's nest, and the whole world will reap the consequences. I have previously suggested that this conflict benefits America; otherwise, it would never have started. Undoubtedly, this is just a hypothesis, and Donald Trump continues to insist in interviews that it will be resolved soon. However, at the moment, there are no signs of its conclusion, and the markets do not understand how Trump plans to make Tehran abandon its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the entire oil and gas infrastructure in the region.
Earlier, I wrote that Trump could easily proclaim the end of the conflict by announcing complete victory for America and the achievement of all set objectives. And it doesn't matter whether this is true or not. If America stops striking Iran through its own or others' hands, then, likely, over time, Iran will cease bombing oil and gas facilities too. However, solving the problem with the Strait of Hormuz will now be extremely difficult.
On Wednesday, the spokesperson for Tehran's military headquarters, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, stated that Iran is shifting from a strategy of retaliatory strikes to continuous attacks on its enemies. He promised that neither the U.S. nor the European Union would be able to control oil prices. According to the spokesperson, not a single drop of oil will leave the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, and any vessel or tanker associated with the U.S. or its allies will be considered a legitimate target for the Iranian armed forces. Zolfaghari warned the entire world that oil prices would soon reach $200 per barrel, as prices depend on regional security, which has been severely disrupted.
Frankly, Zolfaghari's words do not appear to be empty threats. Rather, it is Trump's promises that seem baseless. Washington can continue to strike Iran, but until all military infrastructure in Iran has been destroyed, no one will be able to guarantee the safety of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It is impossible to speculate how long it will take to destroy all military equipment, drones, depots, air defenses, and so on. Potentially, the war could drag on for a very long time, during which oil and gas prices are unlikely to fall significantly from current levels.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment, but may soon complete it due to the rapidly changing news context. The markets are now only interested in oil and gas prices and the situation in the Middle East. At present, I am not ready to conclude that the upward trend is complete, but it is also quite difficult to believe that the war with Iran will end quickly. Thus, the wave pattern may require adjustments soon.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The global wave 5 can take a much more extended form than it currently exhibits. I believe that the formation of a corrective set of waves may soon be completed (or may have already been completed), after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can currently recommend looking for new buying opportunities with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward trend segment does not appear complete. However, the duration and intensity of the conflict in the Middle East will now significantly affect the instrument's prospects.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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