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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rose on Tuesday to the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. currency and lead to some decline toward the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. If the pair consolidates above the 1.3437–1.3465 level, the probability of continued growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539 will increase.
The wave situation continues to shift toward a bullish structure. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, we are beginning to see the first signs of a bullish trend. The information background for the British pound had been weak in recent months, while geopolitics gave bears a full advantage in the market. However, the war in Iran may end in the near future, and the Strait of Hormuz may be unblocked by American naval forces.
The news background on Tuesday was weak, but bullish traders continued their attack amid decreasing tension in the Middle East. Of course, it is too early to talk about the end of the conflict. I believe that the conflict could shift from a phase of active military actions to a slow-moving phase that may last for years. However, markets need at least some positive news. The first such signals supported risk currencies and assets. Traders stopped aggressively buying the dollar as a safe-haven asset, and the trend began to turn bullish.
Now it is important for the bulls not to lose their advantage. Today, an inflation report will be released in the United States. The forecasts are fairly neutral. The headline figure in February is expected to remain at 2.4%, while the core figure is expected to remain at 2.5%. If these numbers are confirmed, traders are unlikely to react strongly to the report. However, if inflation accelerates even slightly, bears may launch another attack. It should be noted that amid rising energy prices worldwide, inflation is expected to accelerate. Therefore, if inflation in the United States begins to rise again, the Federal Reserve may potentially have to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged for longer. This would be positive for the dollar, since before the conflict in Iran traders expected further easing. At the moment, however, this remains only a hypothesis, as the U.S. labor market has again been showing disappointing results, which may cause the Fed to shift its attention back toward supporting employment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the upper boundary of the downward trend channel. A rebound from this line and the 1.3369–1.3435 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a resumption of the decline toward the support level of 1.3118–1.3140. A close above the downward channel would allow traders to expect the end of the bearish trend and growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
The sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish over the last reporting week, which no longer appears accidental under current circumstances. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,714, while the number of short positions increased by 7,900. The gap between long and short positions is now essentially 59,000 versus 132,000.
In recent months, bears have more often dominated, although the situation with euro contracts is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators or Trump's trade policy, but on the duration and scale of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared with the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, first a correction began while the bullish trend remained intact, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Negotiations on an agreement between the United States and Iran failed, so now the dollar is rising due to geopolitical factors.
On March 11, the economic calendar contains one fairly important event. The information background may therefore influence market sentiment on Wednesday.
Selling the pair may be considered today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with a target at 1.3341–1.3352. Buying was previously recommended if the pair closed above 1.3341–1.3352 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3437–1.3465. This target has been reached. New buy positions may be considered if the pair closes above 1.3437–1.3465, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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