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Análisis Forex

Fundamental analysis

23.02.202607:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on February 23? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Essentially, the only noteworthy report is the business climate index in Germany, but it is well understood that this is a secondary report. We believe that last week's events are sufficient for the US dollar to continue its decline, and this week, other news regarding tariffs and Trump's trade standoff with the world, including the US, may emerge. The euro has broken out of the descending channel, so technically, the path upward for both currency pairs is clear.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, only the speech by Christine Lagarde can be highlighted. Lagarde is unlikely to change her rhetoric regarding the ECB's monetary policy, but she may comment on Donald Trump's new tariffs in violation of previous agreements, as well as the illegality of all tariffs against the EU in 2025. Additionally, rumors have begun to surface that the EU may halt the ratification process for the trade deal with the US based on the US Supreme Court's ruling. The most interesting developments are just beginning. The monetary policy of central banks is temporarily taking a back seat.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, the market may experience quite active movements, as last week's events may carry over into the current week. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1830-1.1837, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3529-1.3543. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency, while the trend for the euro has shifted upward.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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