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The EUR/USD currency pair showed a rather predictable upward movement on Friday, and the new week began with new growth. It seemed logical, as the events of Friday could not, in theory, support the US dollar. However, in our view, the US dollar fell too weakly given the scale and number of important news items on the last trading day of the previous week.
To start, the business activity indices in the Eurozone and Germany showed positive results. Furthermore, the US GDP report for the fourth quarter was twice (!!!) weaker than forecasts. In the evening, the US Supreme Court annulled most of Donald Trump's trade tariffs, ruling they were illegal, but the president immediately imposed new tariffs of 10%, raising them to 15% on Saturday. Thus, all tariffs remain in effect in one form or another, and some have even increased. We believe these reasons were enough to see a much more significant decline in the dollar. However, perhaps the market simply has not had the time to digest this information.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, two excellent buy signals were formed. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area, and in the American session, it repeated the trick. Thus, beginner traders had the opportunity to open one or even two long positions, with one yielding a profit by Friday. If traders carried the trade over to Monday, it closed at the Take Profit, as the 1.1830-1.1837 area was fully reached.
On the hourly timeframe, the downward correction has been canceled, as the price has settled above the descending channel. At the beginning of 2026, a long-term upward trend has resumed, so we expect new growth for the euro. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the US dollar, so we fully support further upward movement.
On Monday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the pair rebounds from the 1.1830-1.1837 area, targeting 1.1745-1.1754. A price consolidation above the area of 1.1830-1.1837 would allow for long positions with a target of 1.1899-1.1908.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, a business climate index will be published in Germany, and that is all the news scheduled for Monday. We believe that the data received last week and, overall, in 2026, could provoke a much stronger rise in the pair.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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