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The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility, mostly sideways, on Tuesday. On Monday, we saw a strong increase in the pair following the Chinese government's ban on commercial banks from purchasing American Treasury bonds. Still, on Tuesday, the only interesting event was the US retail sales report. The report came in weak, showing zero growth in December, below expectations of +0.4%. However, the market was in a pause mode and paid no attention to this report. The pause was needed to prepare for today's events. Today, the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports will be released in the US. A lot has been said about these reports, but they remain key for the US dollar because they directly affect the Fed's monetary policy. The US labor market remains in a dire state, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will return to monetary easing.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the price ignored any levels and areas on Tuesday due to total flatness. Undoubtedly, beginner traders might have struggled to understand the situation and open trades. However, it became clear during the American trading session that there would be no movements, and the market was clearly waiting for data from across the ocean. It was not the best day for traders, but such days do happen.
On the hourly timeframe, a downward correction is still in effect but could soon revert to an upward trend. Recall that the flat phase, which lasted 7 months, has ended. If this is the case, the long-term upward trend has resumed at the beginning of 2026. Thus, we expect a new medium-term decline in the dollar. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the American currency, so we fully support further movement to the north.
On Wednesday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1899-1.1908 area, with a target of 1.1830-1.1837. A price consolidation above the 1.1899-1.1908 area allows opening long positions with a target at 1.1970.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, and 1.2092-1.2104. Today, there are no significant events scheduled in the Eurozone, while in the US, the Non-Farm Payroll, unemployment rate, and wage data will be published. A storm could be expected at the beginning of the American trading session.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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