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The test of the 154.71 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
Next, we are expecting some fairly interesting news related to the U.S. economy. Data for the ISM Manufacturing Index are due, which serves as an important barometer of economic health. A reading above 50 points indicates an increase in business activity, while a drop below this level signals a slowdown. As for the speech by Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the main focus will be on his comments regarding the current Fed monetary policy and interest rate prospects. Given that the Federal Reserve does not plan to change anything before summer, investors will be looking for clues as to how the Fed assesses inflation risks following the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar this year. Bostic's opinion is particularly important, as he is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 155.04 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 155.51 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.51, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level. Growth in the pair today can be expected after strong U.S. data.
Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.71 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 155.04 and 155.51.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 154.71 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.37, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak U.S. data.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.04 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 154.71 and 154.37.
What's on the Chart
Important
Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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