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Despite some easing of geopolitical tension after Donald Trump's speech at Davos, a residue remains. Yes, the US president said he would not occupy Greenland, but he also made it clear the Danish island will still fall into a vassal?like dependency on the United States.
Of course, this state of affairs supports demand for gold — not only as a safe haven but as the main financial asset in the world that may emerge after the end of the Ukrainian crisis and the rise of new global governance institutions to replace the UN. That is why the "yellow metal" is in such strong demand and could continue to rise in dollar terms to $5,000 and even beyond.
If the likely future price of gold is relatively clear, what about the outlook for the US dollar? Will its importance really fade in the coming years?
This is not a frivolous question. At present the dollar's share in global trade transactions remains quite high, despite the previous Biden administration's use of it as a financial weapon against Russia amid the Ukrainian crisis. Countries in the Global South and East have begun to settle part of their trade in national currencies, which undermines dollar hegemony and, by extension, US influence. But it's still too early to say the dollar will be sidelined — much will depend on the actions of the current US administration in Washington.
So what can we expect in markets in the near term? I believe gold prices, after a small correction, will resume an uptrend, since geopolitical tension will hang over markets for an extended period. On that wave, spot gold should soon rise toward $5,000 and attempt to hold above that level.
The dollar, despite threats from the EU to sell Treasuries, will be supported in FX markets by the weakness of currencies traded against it and by the attractiveness of dollar?denominated assets, including US stocks amid falling interest in European and other global stocks.
Overall, I continue to expect a recovery in demand for US stocks and for gold. The dollar and cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure.
Daily outlook
GOLD
Spot gold is undergoing a mild downward correction but is holding above support at $4,915.70. Failure to break below this level could lead to a resumption of the rally toward $5,000. A suggested buy level is $4,933.50.
Bitcoin
The flagship cryptocurrency has fallen below $89,568.00 and could continue lower amid weakening demand for crypto due to unclear prospects and pressure from geopolitical tension. After a local bounce, Bitcoin may resume its decline toward $86,255.00. A suggested sell level is $89,250.00.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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