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The test of the price at 1.3463 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.
UK labour-market data helped the pound to rise in the first half of the day, but then faded to the background as market participants focused on the situation in Greenland. Recall that the UK also opposed US actions and claims to the island. This unexpected development, initially appearing to be an insignificant geopolitical episode, quickly became a serious factor shaping currency-market dynamics. Investors, who usually focus on economic indicators, are now closely following news from the Arctic, trying to assess potential consequences for the global economy. The UK's intervention in the Greenland issue added uncertainty and intensified concerns about a further escalation of the conflict between the US and Europe. Previously, it seemed trade disputes were mainly about tariff wars, but now the issue involves territorial claims and political interference. This forces market participants to reassess risks and seek safe-haven assets, which inevitably affects exchange rates.
As for data, UK consumer price reports will be published in the first half of the day. If inflation prints above expectations, the pound may receive short-term support, as this would strengthen arguments for a tighter Bank of England policy. Nevertheless, amid overall uncertainty and heightened attention to Greenland-related geopolitical risk, investors are unlikely to make long-term decisions based solely on British data. Conversely, if the figures are less optimistic, the pound may come under pressure, but any decline is likely to be limited.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry at 1.3445 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3478 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3478, I intend to exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Expect pound gains today only after a sharp rise in inflation. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3430 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels 1.3445 and 1.3478.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3430 level is renewed (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3402, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may show themselves only after a sharp decline in price pressure. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the price tests 1.3445 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels 1.3430 and 1.3402.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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